THE HINDU EDITORIAL NOTES
September 18,2019
1) Red sea red lines and Yemen's inflection point
- Yemen is currently embroiled in a civil war between the Saudi supported Government forces and Iran backed Houthi rebels.
- Yemen although located at Southwest of oil rich Arab peninsula ,is a poor country ,due to lack of oil resources and decades long ethnic strife between northern Shia dominated groups and southern Sunni dominated groups.
- The year 1930 saw Yemen being coerced by powerful neighbor Saudi Arabia to cede some territories,this was first of many foreign intervention in Yemen's politics.
- In 1960s war to depose Imam and to establish Republic , Saudi Arabia rooted for monarchy and Egypt backed republican forces,finally a Yemeni republic was established.A fully united Yemen was founded on 1990,but secessionist elements of south tried to cede away .
- Since 2000 there has been insurrection movement against top leaders ,in 2011 the Yemeni Arab spring movement took place in which president saleh was dethroned and Saudi favorite Hadi was put in place
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| pic credits:gulfnews.com |
- The Iran backed Al-Houthis rebelled against Hadi's elevation and since then Hadi and his internationally recognized Government is living in exile in saudi Arabia
- The ongoing civil war is almost going on for a decade and there is no sign of ceasefire yet, UN has reported current Yemen war (the forgotten war) as one of the worst humanitarian disaster
- Two watershed events in recent times show the war is reaching an end point, both these events has the potential to change the future course of conflict
- The most significant recent development has been the coordinated drone attack on the Saudi upstream oil facilities at Abqaiq and khurais.Although Houthi rebels claim responsibility such precise drone attacks are least possible without a state support and thus Iran is partly blamed for the tragedy.this tragedy has sent oil prices skyrocketing and has exposed the vulnerability of oil fields in that region to such asymmetric warfare attacks.
- The second development has been growing rift within Saudi backed coalition ,when UAE withdrew its support to Saudi's objective ,and started following its own priorities such as supporting Southern transition council (STC ) which calls for independent south yemen
- Many observers predict that current civil war will result in Yemen being re-partitioned again into north and south yemen ,in case this fructifies ,UAE would be at the driving seat of the region's geopolitics and the important player along the Bab el mandeb strait bordering south Yemen an important choke point.
Lessons for India:
- India being a crude oil importer has to be wary of the happening in Yemen ,the Government must promptly take steps to diversify its oil imports as there is a real possibility of full scale war in that region
- India rightly condemned the drone strikes by Houthi rebels on Saudi oil field,Now India has to quickly learn from this event and should devise counter measures to prevent any such drone attacks on Indian soil by terror groups operating in south Asia
To read the complete source article ,click here
Read more about ongoing yemen civil war and strategic consequences for India ,here
2) In Kashmir , shaking the apple tree
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- Post dilution of article 370 ,what has really changed on the ground
- There is undoubtedly jubilation on the Indian side that long pending ambiguous status of Kashmir quagmire is resolved
- But will this move solve the problems of alienation and militancy in kashmir or will this move aggravate things further depends on the government future course of actions.
- Two methods exist to solve the issue
- By demographic change of Kashmir and the subsequent reconquest of PoK ,this option has been dismissed by Indian state but even if it were to take place, will end up in large scale war
- The second option is winning over Kashmiris hearts,but this is not going to be feasible unless the curfews are lifted and release of moderate political leaders in detentions takes place
- Although to win over the trust of kashmir after inflicting such huge restrictions is a difficult task yet achievable if they are provided freedom and rights as similar to any other Indian citizen
- The international attention over kashmir issue has so far been low ,but in the event of large scale violence in the region Kashmir will be again in international news
- So the Government must stop further confinements and act swiftly to win over the hearts of Kashmiris.
Read more about kashmir and article 370, here
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3) Deadly spread of Measles due to Vaccine hesitancy
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| pic credits:blogs.bath.ac.uk |
- The World Health Organization (WHO) reported at least 80 percentage increase in measles case worldwide (in 2018) ,partly due to an increase in cases in African region but what is surprising is that there's a sharp increase in European region too.
- In African region, the increase in cases is attributed to lack of awareness and availability of vaccine.
- However in European countries , despite adequate availability , people get infected with measles owing to the increasing vaccine hesitancy as many studies identified
- Similar cases of vaccine hesitancy is also found in India
- Measles vaccine not only provides life long protection against virus but also reduces mortality from other childhood infections,hence rumors related to vaccine should be prevented .
- While social media plays a crucial role in spreading vaccine related disinformation, the commitment by Facebook to reduce vaccine misinformation will be helpful in winning the war against vaccine deniers
Read more about global measles outbreak ,here
4) Fire to fuel,on attacks against the Saudi oil facilities
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| pic credits:thehindubusinessline.com |
- The recent drone attacks on Saudi oil fields by Houthi rebels has disrupted global oil supplies
- The Saudi oil production fell by half , significantly increasing the brent crude prices by 20%
- The oil prices reduced slightly after assurance from US president Trump to use strategic reserve supplies of US to offset any losses.
- With US intelligence blaming Iran for its support to houthi rebels, the event has put the region in brink of war
- The future looks bleak , Saudi Arabian crown prince must realise that continued war in Yemen is a lost cause and should settle for UN brokered peace resolution ,the alternative is a full scale war in the region, the latter will impact India's interest significantly
- India must brace for huge scale increase in oil prices ,as higher fuel costs will affect already ailing Indian Economy.
- In the event of sudden spike in prices ,the Government instead of passing on the price to citizens must reduce excise duties to protect the common citizens from exorbitant price rise.
Read more about uncertainties involved in India's oil imports ,here
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